One week from today, the 2024 Presidential Election cycle will come to its conclusion. As the race currently stands, Donald Trump appears to have his best chance to date to serve a second term as Commander-in-Chief.
According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump and Harris are effectively tied nationally.
The reason why this polling is a source of optimism for the Trump campaign has everything to do with the line right above the polling numbers on the chart. On this same day in 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden had average national leads against Trump of 4.6 points and 7.5 points, respectively. As we now know, Trump outperformed those polling numbers in both election cycles, defeating Clinton in 2016 and losing a razor-close race to Biden in 2020. The fact that Harris is underperforming her predecessors leading into election day means she is likely facing an uphill battle to win the presidency.
The concern for Harris is not isolated to the national polling, either, as the swing state polls also reflect similar warning signs.
Of the ten most important swing states, Trump currently has a measurable lead in eight of them. Once again, the story for Harris can be summed up in her inability to keep pace with history. If we view the poll numbers from four years ago as the measuring stick for what a winning race against Trump looks like, Harris is underperforming her boss in every state except Minnesota, which is the home state for her Vice Presidential nominee, Tim Walz.
Beyond the polling, the Presidential betting markets have also taken notice of these trends, with every available site giving Trump at least at 60% chance of winning a second term.
While it would be a mistake to conclude that election day is now a mere formality for a Trump victory, the current data clearly indicates that momentum is on his side. As we approach the final stretch of the race, a pressing question arises: Why? Why is Trump experiencing this surge, and what makes his third run for the presidency, at least according to polling, his most effective yet? With just a week remaining until election day, I aim to delve into this topic, seeking to understand the dynamics behind one of the most unique political figures of our time.
On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump descended the iconic golden escalator at Trump Tower in New York City, officially entering the realm of American politics with his announcement that he would be running for President of the United States. This dramatic moment not only marked his first foray into the political landscape, but also set the stage for a campaign that would be unlike anything we have ever seen.
It didn’t take long for it to become clear that Donald Trump aimed to be a disruptor candidate—and disrupt he certainly did. His unlikely journey to the nomination, and ultimately the presidency, was shaped by his willingness to challenge both the entrenched powers in Washington as well as the establishment within his own party.
Whether by design or not, Trump’s unapologetic airing of grievances against the political elite resonated with a growing number of disillusioned Americans. They saw the political class as increasingly disconnected from the realities of their decisions, leaving everyday citizens to bear the burden. Could Trump repair the broken system? That answer was uncertain, but one thing was clear: he was willing to go in and flip the tables, and that in itself held significant appeal.
Trump’s role as a disruptor served as the perfect counterpoint to his opponent in 2016, Hillary Clinton. With nearly 30 years in positions of political influence, beginning as First Lady to her husband Bill, then as a senator from New York, and most recently as Secretary of State under Barack Obama, Clinton epitomized what it meant to be a member of the political elite. If anyone represented the privileges that came with being a member of the Washington, D.C. establishment, it was Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Seemingly oblivious to the shifting attitudes among the electorate – which felt a bit on the nose – Clinton struggled to distance herself from her image as the face of the establishment. This inability would ultimately be recorded as the defining cause of her defeat.
In positioning himself as a disruptor, Donald Trump succeeded in provoking the kind of political outrage among the D.C. elite that he had aimed for starting on that June day in 2015. Yet, four years later, he would learn that simply being a disruptor wasn't a guaranteed path to success.
2020 was a year that will remain etched in our memories for the rest of our lives. The Covid-19 pandemic revealed the worst in both individuals and governments, a topic that deserves a lengthy discussion of its own. The chaos and uncertainty of this year profoundly influenced the attitudes and priorities of the population, reshaping how they viewed their lives and the world around them. Adding to this tumult was the fact that 2020 was a presidential election year, further heightening that sense of uncertainty we faced daily.
In times like these, it’s natural for people to seek comfort and familiarity—something that feels normal in abnormal times. To their strategic credit, the Democratic Party tapped into this longing when they nominated Joe Biden as their candidate for President.
In a vacuum, Joe Biden, a man with 50 years of political experience, seems like the kind of candidate that Donald Trump lives to devour. Biden's lengthy career has positioned him as one of the Founding Fathers of the modern political establishment that so many Americans have developed a sour taste for. Unlike a political ideologue who aims to shape his party's direction, Biden often resembles a sailor navigating a sailboat, adjusting his course with the changing political winds of his party, and frequently shifting his stance on contentious issues. If Hillary Clinton was the embodiment of Washington elitism, Biden was the embodiment of status quo, lip-service governance. Given his success in branding Hillary Clinton as the face of the establishment, Donald Trump likely believed Biden would face a similar fate. Maybe in another year, but not in 2020.
While Biden's lengthy political career might have been a liability in another era, it became his defining asset this time around. Voters bought the message that Biden’s lifetime record in Washington gave him the kind of predictability that was needed to balance the scales amidst the chaos of the pandemic. In contrast, Trump's identity as a political disruptor failed to connect in the same way. If the 2020 election was a round hole, Trump's message of continuous disruption was a square peg that simply wouldn’t fit. While some still related to the disruptor narrative, the broader desire for a sense of normalcy and familiarity struck a deeper chord with the electorate. Consequently, Biden won the presidency, leaving Trump's political future—much to the amusement of many—on life support.
As the 2024 presidential election cycle began, the Republican Party seemed poised to turn the page on the Trump Era and seek out a new candidate. However, the party's future direction was still up for debate. Would they revert to their pre-Trump identity with candidates like Nikki Haley or Chris Christie? Would they double down on outsider politics with someone like Vivek Ramaswamy? Or would they attempt to compromise those interests with a candidate like Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis? While opinions were divided, the discussion turned out to be a fool’s errand. The party might have been content to close the book on Trump, but he wasn’t ready to close the book on them.
On November 15, 2022, Trump announced his intention to seek the party’s presidential nomination once again. Almost instantly, discussions about other candidates took a backseat. Any questions about the relevance of Trump’s identity as a political disruptor were quickly answered as he surged to the top of the party’s primary polls. Recognizing the inevitability of his momentum, Trump's challengers began dropping out of the race, clearing the way for him to carry his message of disruption into the general election for a third time. The critical question remained: had his moment passed? His approach had succeeded in 2016, but was a message for the wrong time in 2020. Was the appetite for political disruption still strong enough for him to win? As 2024 began, the answer to that question became an overwhelming yes.
The warm and fuzzy feelings many voters expected from a Biden presidency quickly faded as the harsh realities of the world set in. Post-Covid inflation weighed heavily on Americans as the Biden Administration sought to manage the crisis through spending. Meanwhile, the issue of illegal immigration—a key campaign theme for Trump—grew too significant to overlook, and the U.S. found itself financially entangled in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. If the 2020 election felt like a fever dream, the reality of Biden's presidency became the cold sweat that jolted the American public awake, reminding them why Trump's message of political disruption had resonated so deeply.
Despite the momentum in Trump’s direction, Joe Biden maintained his intention to run for reelection, and his party supported that decision, due in large part to the fact that Donald Trump would once again be his opponent. If Biden defeated Trump once before, surely he could do so again. But this wasn’t 2020, and Biden’s record had become too poor to overcome.
As the summer arrived, Joe Biden’s job approval rating was more than 20 points underwater.
To make matters worse, he found himself trailing Donald Trump by 3 points in the national polling, which was a 7.5-point swing from election day 2020. The 2024 election was quickly becoming unwinnable for Biden, and his party knew it. Thus, on July 21, 2024, the same day that Biden’s disapproval rating peaked, he announced that he would forgo a second term in office, paving the way for his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to assume the nomination and run in his place.
Finally, 1,670 words later, we have reached our current moment in this race.
Following Biden’s resignation, Harris received an immediate bump in the national polling, overtaking Trump by a 2-point margin, which was anticipated. We are nothing if not prisoners of the moment, and the idea of a new face in the race served as a point of intrigue. However, as time has passed, the shine of Harris’ appeal has worn off, leading us to the place we are now. So, what accounts for Trump’s newfound momentum, and why is it different from anything we've witnessed with him before? The first of those answers is obvious: political disruption is cool again.
Trump’s identity as a political disruptor is a delicate one, as witnessed by his disparate runs in 2016 and 2020. It’s a powerfully unique message, but only in the right context. 2024, more so than either of those years before, is a fertile time for disruption. Consistently highlighted in polls, three of the top voter concerns are the economy, immigration, and crime. These issues not only align closely with Trump’s platform, but also have immediate impacts on Americans' lives. As these challenges intensify, the likelihood of voters seeking change increases.
However, does this alone account for Trump’s stronger polling in 2024 compared to 2016 and 2020? Is the demand for the disruption he offers really that intense? In my view, it’s not solely about that. Trump has always been a polarizing figure, with most people holding fixed opinions about him at this point. If he’s seeing an increase in support, it likely stems from a different factor—one that enhances what he already represents. I believe the distinction we’re witnessing in 2024 comes down to one key quality: authenticity.
Regardless of whether one loves or hates Trump, there’s no denying that he is unapologetically himself. This quality has served him in ways both good and bad over the course of his professional and political careers. Despite the consequences, he has continued believing and saying exactly what he wants. Trump’s willingness to be authentically himself, rough edges and all, has been a refreshing quality for some in the past, but has never been highlighted in the fashion that it is now. This shift is largely due to his opponent: Kamala Harris.
I'm only 30, but I find Kamala Harris to be the most inauthentic candidate I've ever encountered. Don’t just take my word for it; the Democratic Party primary voters rejected her presidential bid in 2020, leading her to suspend her campaign in December 2019, two months before the state primaries even began. Her standout campaign moment came in June 2019 during a debate when she challenged Joe Biden on his record regarding race.
Interestingly, those feelings didn’t prevent her from joining him on the Democratic ticket the following year.
As far as the here and now is concerned, Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket following Biden’s resignation came as a result of a coronation by the leaders of her party, shielding her from the challenges she would have inevitably faced in an open primary. After accepting the nomination, it took over 30 days for her to reluctantly sit down with the press for an interview to address questions about her campaign, her stance on various issues, and how she planned to differentiate herself from her boss, who had lost public confidence. Many of those questions remain insufficiently answered, even now, just a week before the election.
Throughout this period, Harris has come across as overly scripted and rehearsed, closely following the instructions of those around her. In her defense, this is the candidate she always intended to be; someone who plays the political game to their advantage in the hopes of being the next figure head for a governance machine in Washington that wants to stay in motion.
In the end, it is this kind of inauthentic political experience that is boosting Trump ahead of next week’s election. His ability to be a political disruptor has been, and is now, his vehicle to the presidency, but his bold, unapologetic authenticity, juxtaposed to the imitative, performative style of Harris, is the fuel that is poised to carry him to the finish line this time around.
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